Burlington CityPlace is a proposed mixed-use development in downtown Burlington, Vermont, undergoing a strategic re-evaluation due to ongoing market changes, and both legal and community challenges. The project had faced delays, lawsuits, shifting economic conditions, and complex public sentiment, especially around key issues such as building height, massing, parking, retail mix, affordable housing, and the overall health of the downtown. The primary objective for the project team - composed of architects, planners, and real estate analysts - was to determine the best path forward for the property. This involved answering several critical questions:

• What are the client’s goals for the project and broader community vision?

• What is feasible and in-demand within the local market?

• Where are there gaps between supply and demand, and how can the project position itself favorably?

• What is the optimal strategy balancing financial feasibility, risk, and alignment with community interests?

Scope

The research team conducted extensive analysis, leveraging prior feasibility studies and updated market research across residential, retail, office, and hospitality sectors, with specific consideration of demographic and economic trends:

• Demographic & Economic Context: Burlington’s population has stagnated, while surrounding county growth continues. The city is marked by a younger population driven by student demand but faces affordability challenges, particularly for workforce and family housing. Economic growth is strongest in finance, insurance, real estate, professional services, education, healthcare, and the arts. Unemployment remains low, and office-related employment is a significant driver of market strength in the downtown core.

• Residential Market: The city’s housing stock is old and dominated by multi-family rentals, with extremely low vacancy rates, especially downtown. Demand is fueled by students (large off-campus population), young professionals, and renters. However, new rental development is challenged by affordability requirements (inclusionary zoning), high costs, and competition from nearby projects such as Cambrian Rise, which are pioneering micro-units and co-living concepts. Rental rates in downtown are much higher than citywide averages, and innovative approaches—smaller units, more amenities, sharing economy features—could command a premium.

• Retail & Office Market: Downtown Burlington has the region’s highest retail rents, robust retail occupancy, and strong visitor foot traffic, anchored by the Church Street Marketplace and proximity to colleges, the medical center, and major employers. Retail and F&B (food and beverage) receipts are rising faster than traditional retail, with opportunities identified to expand retail supply (up to 200,000sqft). Office space is mostly occupied, with opportunity for growth via traditional and flexible (co-working) models. Evolving competition from nearby developments (U-Mall redevelopment, South Burlington City Center) must be considered.

• Hospitality: The downtown location is considered prime for hotel development, though comprehensive supply and demand data remains limited. Short-term rentals and Airbnb pose new challenges and opportunities.

• Community and Planning Issues: The public’s wishlist focuses on walkability, green space, active street life, diverse housing (including affordable), shared and flexible parking, and authentic places serving both locals and visitors. Policy debates—especially around affordable housing requirements—are actively shaping project scope. Inclusionary zoning is under review, and solutions may favor creativity and higher density on infill sites.