The Lexington County Sustainable Growth Study was a comprehensive analysis of employment and commercial development trends in Fayette County (which includes the City of Lexington, KY) and its surrounding Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) counties—Scott, Jessamine, Clark, Woodford, and Bourbon. The study's purpose was to guide sustainable economic and real estate growth in the region by identifying strengths and weaknesses, and projecting future demand in key sectors.

The study laid the groundwork for data-driven long-range planning in the area, focusing on key development issues such as:

• Population and demographic trends

• Housing needs and affordability

• Employment and economic base analysis

• Land use, vacant land inventory, and zoning

• Commercial development (industrial, office, and retail)

• Municipal finances, infrastructure, and community facilities

• Growth projections through 2040 based on recent and historical trends

This work was an update of prior work by others, further refining projection models (for households, commercial space, and infrastructure needs), and incorporating new census, development, and market data. It also advances the decision-making framework for the Urban Service Boundary (USB), helping determine whether, when, and how Lexington's urban area should expand - all with the aim of balancing economic growth, rural preservation, and service delivery for a sustainable future.

Employment Analysis:

• Examines Fayette County's job growth and concentration by industry using location quotients (LQ), comparing local employment shares to national averages.

• Identifies sectors that are thriving (eg. Administration & Support, Transportation & Warehousing) and those losing competitiveness (eg. Manufacturing, Agriculture).

Economic Base & Shift-Share Analysis:

• Highlights the sectors driving export-oriented economic activity and how local competitiveness is changing over time.

• “Stars” (highly concentrated/growing sectors), “Emerging” (fast-growing but less concentrated), and “Transforming” (declining sectors) classifications inform which sectors to target for economic development.

Commercial Development:

• Assesses industrial, office, and retail inventory, vacancy rates, absorption, rent growth, and new construction across the region.

• Uses CoStar submarket data to break down supply and demand fundamentals by location and segment.

Growth Projections:

• Projects future space needs for industrial, office, and retail sectors out to 2040 using historical growth rates under conservative and more optimistic scenarios.

• Accounts for broader market influences—including increased competition from other cities, the impact of remote work, and e-commerce’s role in reshaping retail.

The study’s findings were used to:

• Advise policymakers and economic developers on strategic growth opportunities.

• Balance population growth, economic base changes, and real estate market trends for sustainable regional development.

• Support investment and land use decisions for long-term prosperity.